January 9, 2007

Talking About the Future

McGwire's Hall omission leaves many questions unanswered.

By John Miller

As expected, Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn were elected to the Hall of Fame today, and Mark McGwire was not. Big Mac needed 75% of the 409 votes; he got 128 (23.55%).

Ripken’s 98.53 percent of the vote was the third-highest mark ever behind Tom Seaver (98.84) and Nolan Ryan (98.79). Of course, that begs the question: Who the hell didn’t think Tom Seaver or Nolan Ryan was Hall of Fame material?

Regarding Big Mac, there’s no right or wrong answer. Yes, he probably took steroids, and no, that doesn’t sit well with me. However, there’s no proof he took steroids, and even if he did, it wasn’t against baseball’s rules.

I think you have to treat all the players from the Steroid Era the same. You can’t ostracize McGwire and overwhelmingly elect Ripken. Like most people, I don’t think Ripken was juicing, but how can we know for sure? Like McGwire, Ripken played in a time when baseball didn’t test for steroids. Plus, Cal broke the seemingly unbreakable record of 2,130 consecutive games played. (The new record is 2,632.) Isn’t it at least possible that Cal used a little something extra to play that many games, especially toward the end of his career?

But I’m not trying to defame Ripken – far from it. I use him as an example of how the rationale for excluding McGwire is flawed. The only reason McGwire didn’t have the majority’s support was based on pure speculation, not evidence.

And don’t tell me his head, forearms, and every other part of his anatomy – except a couple important ones – were unnaturally gargantuan and clearly the result of steroid use. If Guillermo Mota (6’6”, 210 pounds) and Alex Sanchez (5’10”, 180) tested positive, anything is possible.

Where does the speculation end? What about Alex Rodriguez? Obviously, he has Hall of Fame numbers, but he too played during the Steroid Era. No one has ever accused A-Rod of juicing, but would anyone be that surprised if he was? He’s about to become the youngest ever to 500 homers, and he’s not exactly Paul Bunyan.

You can speculate about whether everyone from the Steroid Era was juicing or not. The Hall of Fame voters have to decide what degree of circumstantial or anecdotal evidence they can tolerate. In McGwire’s case, his non-answers at the congressional hearings were too much – that much is obvious. What McGwire’s omission means for other potential inductees, however, is anyone’s guess.