January 11, 2007

Was trading the Big Unit a big mistake?

By John Miller

Randy Johnson is a Diamondback once again, but I don't see how this move helps the Yankees in 2007.

Everyone knows pitching was New York’s biggest problem last season, so why jettison Johnson? Well, after the death of his older brother, Gregg, Johnson told Yankees GM Brian Cashman he wouldn't mind playing closer to his home and family. Johnson's agent emphasized that Johnson never demanded a trade.

His 5.01 ERA last season -- a career high for a full season -- coupled with offseason back surgery likely made the Yankees' decision much easier. But Johnson, 43, wasn't as bad as his ERA indicates. Walks and hits/innings pitched (WHIP) is a more accurate measure of a pitcher's effectiveness, and Johnson's 1.24 WHIP, while high for him, was pretty solid compared to the rest of the league. For instance, Barry Zito's 1.40 WHIP in 2006 got him $126 million from the Giants. Of course, Zito's 3.83 ERA looks nice on paper, but was he really a better pitcher, or did he just benefit from better defense behind him, a more hitter-friendly ballpark, and a little luck?

Johnson's back surgery is especially disconcerting, and chances are he won't be as dominant as he was during his previous stint in Arizona. Still, subtracting Johnson from the Yankee's rotation is not an ideal situation. As of today, here's their 2007 rotation: Chien-Ming Wang, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, and a bunch of question marks. Carl Pavano hasn't pitched in a season and a half, Kei Igawa comes highly regarded from Japan but is completely unproven in the Majors, and Roger Clemens rejoining the Yankees seems highly unlikely. Houston is the only team that can give Clemens a part-time schedule and keep him close to home. Plus, Johnson’s 2006 WHIP was better than Wang’s 1.31 and Pettitte’s 1.44 in the weaker National League.

Right now, most Yankee fans aren't sorry to see Johnson go, but don't be surprised if they change their tune come October.