| October 9, 2006 ALCS and NLCS Preview: One Man Show? By John Miller Before we start the preview, I’d like to point out that I’m
clearly a moron. I had the Twins and Dodgers playing for the World Series,
and they were both SWEPT. That’s right, I had them winning a combined
14 games in the first two rounds, and they got nada. Luckily, we all know
anything can happen in the baseball playoffs. At least I didn’t
pick the Yankees like everyone else. If my NBA Finals picks were swept
in the first round, I’d blow up this site in shame. Okay, enough mea culpa. Athletics vs. Tigers: Statistically, this series is
a mismatch. In the regular season, the Tigers bettered the A’s in
batting average, runs, hits, ERA, hits allowed, and opponent batting average.
Of course, statistics are often deceiving. Oakland was the better team
in the second half. The A’s have the home-field advantage, but both stadiums are considered
“pitcher’s parks.” In Game 1, the A’s have the
edge. Barry Zito beat Johan Santana in the Division Series, and Nate Robertson
took the Tigers’ lone loss against the Yankees. In Game 2, it’s Esteban Loaiza against Justin Verlander. Loaiza
somehow survived the Milton Bradley Coffee Incident and pitched a solid
five innings, allowing two earned. I thought Verlander was wearing down,
but he pitched well enough for Detroit’s terrific bullpen to hold
the victory. Kenny Rogers was the real surprise, dominating the Yankees despite an
ugly track record against them. Rogers will start Game 3 and likely face
either Dan Haren or the injured Rich Harden, who has pitched a mere 11
innings since June. In my opinion, Oakland should use Harden as a reliever
this series. His velocity is down, but the A’s seem determined to
start him in Game 3 or 4. That would put him on track to start Game 6
or 7 too, a scary proposition if you ask me. Both Detroit and Oakland’s lineups are an interesting mix of young
and old. Frank Thomas is the best hitter in the series, but I think the
Tigers are a little better one through nine. Ultimately, the Tigers’ superior starters and bullpen will seize
the day. However, if Rich Harden is healthy and can somehow pitch up to
his enormous potential, Billy Beane might be looking at another book deal. (By the way, were the ESPN guys reaching for controversy in The Coffee
Game, or what? It was an accident. Loaiza looked mildly annoyed, but he
calmly got up and put on a new jersey. Of course, since the volatile Milton
Bradley was involved, the ESPN crew couldn’t stop talking about
it the rest of the game. They were was acting like he slept with Loaiza’s
wife.)
Mets vs. Cardinals: With Pedro Martinez and Orlando
Hernandez out, both teams’ rotations are less than stellar. If I
have to choose though, I’ll take the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter might win his second straight Cy Young, and Jeff Suppan
had a 2.39 ERA after the All-Star break. After that, things are pretty
bleak. Jeff Weaver and Jason Marquis won’t scare the formidable
Mets lineup. Carlos Delgado is hitting .500 in 38 career at-bats against
Weaver, the Cardinals’ Game 1 starter, including four homers. The Mets will start Tom Glavine in Game 1, and he’s their only
reliable starter. John Maine has only 24 career starts, Steve Trachsel
had 79 strikeouts and 78 walks this season, and Oliver Perez is talented
but wild. In 2004 with Pittsburgh, Perez had a sparkling 2.98 ERA and
was a priceless commodity. Since the beginning of 2005 though, Perez has
struggled badly with his control. He fell apart so dramatically that the
Pirates traded him for Xavier Nady and the immortal Roberto Hernandez
at the trade deadline. No offense to those guys, but that’s not
exactly a king’s ransom for a young starter everyone considered
a gem two seasons ago. On paper, the Mets have a much better lineup. On the other hand, Albert
Pujols is so good, especially in the clutch, that he can change a series
by himself. But will the Mets pitch to him? That likely depends on Pujols’
teammates. If they get on base and put the Mets in situations where they
must pitch to Pujols, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to reach
their second World Series in three years. Before the playoffs began, I thought the Cardinals nearly collapsing
in September meant they had no chance of making noise in October. Today,
I’ve changed my mind. The Mets’ rotation is so decimated by
injury that it’s hard imagine them getting more than five innings
out of anyone but Glavine. In a seven game series, the Mets can’t
count on their bullpen to bail them out like it did against the Dodgers.
World Series: Tigers in five. |