AFC and NFC title game previews

January 20, 2007

AFC and NFC title game previews

I’m 7-1 thus far in the playoffs. Damn you, Steve McNair!

• As dumb as this sounds, weather is my biggest concern for the Saints. They’re a southern dome team, and many of their key players, including Drew Brees, Deuce McAllister, and Reggie Bush, are from warm-weather environments.

The Saints should run the ball early and often against a Bears’ run defense that struggled somewhat against the Seahawks. Last Saturday against Philadelphia, McAllister had 21 carries for 143 yards, and Bush had 12 for 52. If I were Sean Payton, I’d have them combine for around 40 carries if they’re running as effectively as they did last week.

Conventional wisdom says the Bears will have a conservative offensive game plan to limit potential Rex Grossman turnovers. But with the Bears’ defense not playing as well as it did in the first half of the season, that approach could play right into the Saints’ hands. Grossman played his best games when he was allowed to cut it loose, and the Bears should throw a bomb or two to Bernard Berrian early. If one of them connects, it will give Grossman and the offense a serious confidence boost; if they don’t work, it’ll still show Grossman the coaching staff has faith in him.

Don’t look at punts as an opportunity for a bathroom break. Devin Hester and Bush are the most electrifying return men in football. Either could make the game-deciding play.

Ultimately, the Saints win because they have too much offense. The Bears’ defense hasn’t been the same since Tommie Harris went down, and asking their offense to match points with the explosive Saints is a losing proposition.

• Suddenly, people are fawning over the Colts’ defense. On SportsCenter’s “Take Your Pick” segment this week, Sean Salisbury, an NFL analyst and alleged penis photographer, said he’d take the Colts’ defense over the Patriots’ defense.

Sorry, Sean, but that’s completely ridiculous. The Colts having Bob Sanders back helps, and yes, these Patriots aren’t as good defensively as they’ve been in previous years. But New England still has Bill Belichick, who has absolutely owned Peyton Manning in the playoffs.

As bad the Colts’ run defense is, the Patriots might have trouble exploiting that weakness. They had a sluggish 51 yards on 21 carries last week in San Diego. Laurence Maroney needs at least 15-20 carries this week, as Corey Dillon was mostly ineffective in the second half of the season.

As I said last week, the Colts are a different team in the RCA Dome. Still, I have to pick the Patriots. Baltimore was, at best, mediocre offensively, and I don’t think most fans outside Kansas City realize how much worse the Chiefs’ offense was this season compared to the Dick Vermeil era. Plus, as good as the Colts have been at home, Tom Brady has lost zero dome games, one on artificial turf, and more importantly, one in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Manning is under extraordinary pressure to win this game and silence his playoff critics. So far, Manning hasn’t proven he can overcome that kind of pressure.